Post COVID World and Talent — the Changing Face
World Economic Forum (WEF) has released the report “Future of Jobs — 2023”, which identifies the top skills that are needed to succeed at work. Not surprisingly, the top two skills are cognitive–analytical and Creative thinking. And in the age of Artificial Intelligence, technical skills come way down to number 6 (Technological Literacy).
At every point in history, please feel that they are living in the most complex environment ever. And the present is no different. Of course, the recent explosion of AI, with tools like ChatGPT and a plethora of others like it, and a huge buzz makes us all very uncomfortable, and often scared.
With doomsday predictions talking of the complete elimination of skills and jobs, I am sure everyone who is in their productive age is thinking — will I become redundant? Well, there is a possibility for sure, but no one knows for sure. The future will always remain unknown and will unfold with its surprises. But what we can do for sure is try to shape ourselves, and be ready for what may come. Hence investments in the development of requisite skills become extremely important.
Many contradictory trends run in parallel and make our choices on where to focus difficult. We are digitally connecting across the world, but forgetting who our neighbor is. We have access to unprecedented knowledge and technologies but have not been able the problems like hunger, illiteracy, and health. We have systems, processes, methodologies, and insights but businesses continue to fail spectacularly. We have institutions that straddle the world but world peace remains as elusive as ever.
Why so? What are the drivers that make it this way? Well there will be many views, but the following are the Top 10 megatrends that I pick:
1. Hyper-connected
Let us take the case of COVID-19, which is just behind us.
100 years back when the Spanish Flu happened, it took years for it to move across continents. But COVID-19 has moved to 200+ countries in weeks, such as the scale of international travel.
To get a perspective, the pre-COVID world used to have an average of 250,000 flights a day. The transatlantic sector used to operate 70,000 flights. Such is the scale of operations that at any point 20,000 flights on average were on air midflight and one big concern before grounding was where they be parked. And possibly we are already back to that status now — with COVID solidly behind us.
This is just passenger air traffic. Add to that the military and other air services. And then add the surface and train transport. Like 13,000 locomotives and 23 million passengers a day on Indian Railways. Or 10 million trucks on the Indian roads carrying goods. Or 42 million containers across the world. And we get a sense of how connected the world has become.
2. Instant
However all these dwarfs in comparison to how things move in a digitally connected world. The stock markets across different bourses react within the overlapping session. So if trading starts with a fall in the Nikkei Index, it moves to Hong Kong, Bombay, London, and New York in the day.
News moves faster. Gone are the days of newspapers, or breaking news on Television. There is no time for the press release or press conference, validated Twitter (X) handles now share news directly. Or even if it is not done, Social Media ensures it reaches the people in no time. As expected, bad news travels much faster than good news.
But some activities happen in nanoseconds. Like Forex movements, exchange rates, or deals in high-frequency trading.
The world is now instant, not just coffee. We want instant action, aggrandizement, and outcomes every moment.
3. Global
Everything in the world today is global. The finance, the business, the education, the travel, the research, the politics. We are all part of a global ecosystem, where an event in one corner affects all in no time.
We have seen the financial markets. In 2019 we saw how the COVID-19 pandemic spread. In 2008 we saw a global recession. In 2000 we saw the global Y2K threat. Or how the Ukraine war affected so many sectors beyond geopolitics almost instantly — food, transport, banking and financial services, global brands, and much more.
And this has primarily been driven by the global organizations and institutions — who we call multinationals and/ or multilateral.
Large global corporations today operate either directly or indirectly in all the countries of the world, irrespective of their socio-economic conditions. So do the multilateral agencies. It is difficult, if not impossible to find today a country where the likes of Facebook, IBM, McDonald’s, or Nestle are present, or an IMF or World Bank, or ADB is engaged in development funding.
And then there is the geopolitical jockeying by the countries for resources — Africa for minerals, the Middle East for oil, and other dynamics. And the globalization picture becomes clearer.
4. Consolidated businesses
The world today has moved to economic activities with gigantic proportions. It is huge, it is complex, and it a global. Some numbers for perspectives (for a sense of the proportions, let’s keep in mind India’s GDP of USD 3.7 Trillion).
- The combined revenue of Global Top 10 companies is USD 4.9 Trillion. Walmart itself had a revenue of USD 0.61 Trillion. The combined profits of the 10 most profitable companies were USD 0.395 Trillion
- The combined Market Capitalization of the 10 most valuable companies is USD 14.7 Trillion. Apple is at USD 2.82 Trillion, Microsoft is at USD 2.45 Trillion, and Saudi Aramco is at USD 2.17 Trillion.
Multinational entities, especially businesses today are much bigger and much more powerful than many nation-states. And the consolidation is omnipresent. For example, a handful of large global food companies today decide what is on our plates — and their key considerations are yield, resistance, and transportability rather than food value or taste.
5. Increasing automation
Automation is not new. It started starting primarily with Financial Services decades back, to take over the routine tasks from humans. However, over the last decade, two key changes happened — the availability of huge amounts of data, and cheap but high-end computing power and storage. So algorithms are now being written to analyze these data for knowledge, with the potential to replace even in non-routine, mundane jobs. And it has now started affecting jobs, across industries, geographies, and economic systems.
6. Data based knowledge
Leadership and decision-making have traditionally been associated with intuition, gut feeling, and courageous call. Traditionally 40% has been considered as the upper limit to which information may be available about a situation where decisions are to be made, and that reduces exponentially with the severity and urgency.
No more. Data is now being captured at a frantic pace — and qualified, annotated, and structured data that can readily be analyzed. With the Internet of Things (IoT), an explosion of smart terminal devices, and the willingness of civil society to part with personal data for comfort, petabytes of data are getting generated every day.
Add to this the computing power, and an army of professionals trained in data sciences — and we have an ecosystem of data capture, modeling, analysis, and interpretation that is credible and very fast.
So today decisions are significantly being aided by big data analytics, and in certain cases, they are eliminating the humans. And this is a secular trend.
7. Long-tailed
The options and offerings that we have access to have multiplied manifold. Gone were the days when catalogs were a prestigious possession, the only source of detailed information, and many times a money-spinning business. With the digitization of the content and cheap data, the “long tail” of choices is now within the access of almost anyone.
Yesterday’s benchmarks of 3M having 3,000+ products, or ITW having 10,000+ are no more game-changing. Amazon and Flipkart offer thousands and at times millions, of choices in only each category. Why? Because such offers need little finished goods, but rather a very efficient supply chain. The supply chains have now penetrated every corner of the world.
The tail is even refined when the offering is digitized, like streaming music, movies, documentaries, or education. And for the select few who can’t find what they want on the regular web, the “dark web” is always there.
8. Shifting economic power
The wealth is shifting from the developed to the developing world. China and India are on the ascent. So are many other countries outside the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. G-7 is becoming G-8, all the way to G-20 (and now G22, with the European Union and the African Union).
With this global trade is increasing, as well as people’s movement across the borders. Both digital and physical connections are multiplying. Capital, talent, and other resources are moving wherever there is an advantage of proximity to the market, knowledge ecosystem, or skills. In many ways, the world is becoming one single producing and consuming entity.
9. Shifting demographics
The developed world is aging, the developing world is becoming younger. With higher levels of enrolments and lower dropouts, basic education is becoming more widespread. So is the access to information, which is making aspirations global. Cheaper gadgets, smarter user interfaces, and connectivity are helping basic technical awareness for all. This is also fueling a very different type of occupational aspiration.
10. Devastation by COVID-19
This is the most recent, but most potent. A once-in-a-lifetime event for all (so far), it neither has precedence, nor a rule book to manage. Many estimate that it is just in the prologues and many episodes will unfold with time. It has changed the way we live, interact, educate, care, work, and many other dimensions. It will permanently influence global geopolitics, the balance of power, and economic structure.
“Life after COVID” is different from “Life before COVID” in significant ways. One area for sure to be part of that change is globalization — starting with travel affected by social distancing and followed by relooking at supply chains, de-risking of supplier bases, coupled with geopolitical dimensions. And add to this the rise of China, the Ukraine war, and now the West Asia coming back to the focus.
So what does all this mean for the businesses of tomorrow? Well, there are a plethora of advantages that businesses have today — global production hubs, global talent pools, global supply chains, global collaborations, global benchmarks — the list is endless. But with all these, there are newer challenges too. I list some of them:
- Information asymmetry is gone. It is not more an advantage, only the knowledge is. And that needs continuous focus on data capture, analysis, and interpretations.
- Digital connections are eliminating the middle layer, bringing the real stakeholders together. That is bringing customers closer, but reducing the turnaround time too.
- Customer demands are becoming more precise and real-time. They now have less patience to think about an elaborate idea, the focus is on defining the problem with a Design Thinking mindset and looking at demonstratable solutions
- No one is constrained by traditional barriers like talent, information, access, or capital. Competition can come from anywhere
- Nimble young entrepreneurs can turn around much faster than large corporations.
- Most importantly, the PPTs are passé, “show and tell” is what matters
All this makes the future of jobs very different from what it was before. The needs are now very specific for the skills, with learnability, agility, and problem-solving mindsets being the key. We need people who can:
- Think comprehensively, end to end– not focused on point solutions.
- One who can ideas, design, and implement.
- It is not just an Input/ Output mindset, but measures the Outcome and impact, and then corrects through a feedback loop.
- Turns around quickly, and with visible action and next steps.
- It can build a consensus among the stakeholders and set a sense of vision and passion.
- It can work comfortably with limited information, resources, and control.
So what will be the characteristics of the leaders of tomorrow? I make a list of five which I feel strongly about, and here they are:
1. The world is global — so one needs a global outlook
Looks at the globalized Shipping Industry. A ship “registered under a flag of convenience in Panama, owned by a consortium of Greek and Saudi shell companies, crewed by Indonesians and Filipinos under a Malaysian skipper, carrying a cargo owned by a limited corporation in Dubai, en route from Venezuela to Yemen.
This is true for any business today — multi-geo, multi-culture, multi-currency. And one needs to build that mindset. Learn about other countries, make friends across the globe, visit, and meet people of other nationalities whenever possible. Take short study tours, global or local. Explore exchange programs and scholarships. Join cross-country for global projects.
Globalization, its history, and its dynamics are vast subjects. Invest time to understand them. Track one or two global companies’ businesses, not just offerings but the history, strategies, and policies — all over some time.
2. Build a Network — with people who are as good as you if not better
At the end of the day, people deal with people. Everything else is secondary.
We hear so much about VC/ PE funding. We see Shark Tanks, we see Apprentice. We see movies all showcasing bashing young people making fabulous presentations on business ideas, and walking away with millions of dollars of investments. Unfortunately, the reality is way different.
What do VC funds look for in a startup? Well, this is the take from a top Silicon Valley investor:
Business Idea — 5%
Business Model, including entry barriers — 25%
Scalability of business — 20%
Do I know you, or do I know someone who knows you — 50%
So it comes back to the basics, do I trust you with my money?
The same is the case with every business transaction. We may build pages of watertight contracts, but we also know it is always messy, if not messy, to try to implement them. What we need is the trust of the people — will you deliver what you promise?
The network is something that grows with time and stays with one. Focus on it, right now. Join various business and social forums and contribute. Do industry projects, even if it is for free. Include actual fieldwork, not just writing a report. Engage with social organizations/ NGOs. Build a way to maintain records of the connects and remain in touch Build connects, especially with government and elected representatives. Help solve real issues with real efforts, not just ideas.
3. Articulate — and only practice will help you improve
Apple is known as much for its products as for the Apple Developers Conference. Its founder Steve Jobs was a perfectionist and was known to have practiced his speech tens of times before delivery. When Jobs was ousted, and John Scully came to the helm — he had to live up to this legacy.
In his memoir, he says he practiced his first Apple speech over 25 times, a couple of them at the location with no audience.
Practice makes one perfect. And no one ever lost a job because of over-preparation.
If one wants to be a leader, the first thing one needs is people who follow them. More them money or power or status, what energized others the most is a distilled, crisp, articulated vision. And it does not happen if the leader lacks clarity.
Once it is, communicate that along with the possible pathways using all available media — verbal, non-verbal, written, and social. Look at every opportunity to speak, it does not matter whether it is a family gathering or local club or college. Build on construct and body language — speak in front of the mirror. Join forums and clubs with speaking opportunities.
Make sure you always dress sharp, even when you are having a serious conversation on the phone. Don’t forget that research shows that 58% of the first impression is made on how you present yourself, 37% is how you speak and only 7% is what you speak.
Write and publish different points of view, engage with the readers, and take feedback constructively. And build on it every day.
4. Be the very best in what you are doing — resources are free
The whole dynamics of success have changed. Flipkart founders are billionaires with exited today in the early thirties. Companies like Zomato or OYO are dominating segments in less than a decade. Party chats are giving ideas to collaborate and create unicorns in a couple of years.
Gone are the days when one had to work hard for years before being successful. “30 under 30” are more known today than honchos leading large corporations. If today one is good, the world will chase you.
But you also need to do a few things to be there. Inculcate and develop commercial knowledge, which pulls down many successes. Most of us fail to develop this early, but it remains possibly the most important and differentiating skill in leadership positions. Under the concept of money flow, types of business entities, profit and loss, assets and liabilities, short-term and long-term decision-making, investments, etc. Get a sense of why some companies are successful while others are not.
Broadly base your knowledge across disciplines. Leverage free online resources like Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC). Think global, and set them as a benchmark. Use technology to reach the long tail in every sphere.
5. Always Connect the Dots — and build the value
“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.” — Steve Jobs.
Be a self-starter. The unstated needs are around us, identify them, and get going on how to fulfill them. That had always been how the best of the innovations happened.
- Need for business connect digitally on the go — Desktops
- Compute to be available to all — Operating Systems
- Portable music — Walkman
- Always on — Mobiles
- Music one can buy in pieces — iTunes
- Combine mobility with fashion — iPhones
- Photos on the go — Flicker
- Video on the go — YouTube
- Connect with near and distant — Facebook
It is not in the books, it is a mindset. And we need to define and refine it — through practice. But how to do this?
Use common sense, all the time. Principles, fundamentals, basics. Focus on what you have, and not what you do not have — be unrestrained in mind.
Don’t try doing everything. Nobody can be that, we need to add up, and we need partnerships. Build complementary skills, and look at how to make the sum much bigger than the parts.
So in summary, as Marshall Goldsmith said, “What Got You Here Won’t Get You There”.
Things are changing, and the only change one can bring for sure is changing oneself.
Get going.
References:
https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023/digest/
