Ethiopia crisis and what we can learn from it.

Many of us have grown up with gut-wrenching photos of the Ethiopia famine. But much has changed since then, while most of us were busy with our lives. And now again Ethiopia is in the news, of an impending all-out civil war.

Indian media is hardly focused on this, though globally it has been creating ripples. And the reasons are many.

Post its devastating famine, which happened during a repressive communist regime, a militia led by the Tigrayans (a tribe from Tigray province in the North of Ethiopia, and form only 6% of the population) overthrew the government and formed one themselves. Starting in 1991, they ran the country with an iron fist and provided stability, and Ethiopia also saw reasonable growth. Being the second-most populous country in Africa and being a symbol of stability in the Horn of Africa was good news for all.

But things started changing in 2011. There had been widespread protests, the Tigrayan hold decreased, and Abiy Ahmed (who is from the Oromo tribe, making up 35% of the population) became the Prime Minister in 2018. Abiy is from a Muslim father, and a Christian mother, and looked like a beacon for the region. He was quick to end the two-decade-old war with northern neighbor Eritrea, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

But then the mayhem set in. Many say Abiy has never been democratic, rather long cherished the idea of being the King like the Solomonic dynasty (deposed in 1974). The target became the Tigrayans, who by this time retreated to Tigray. (Incidentally, the royal family had very strong relations with India, and many Indians, especially from Kerala have done commendable work for education in the country.)

Things came to the brink during a pandemic time when Abiy used it to postpone the regional elections, but Tigray went ahead, and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) won it. It was no surprise given they were the ones who ruled the country during the Tigray hold, but this exacerbated the conflict.

The flashpoint came when a regional outpost of Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) at Mekele, the capital of Tigray, and Abiy Ahmed declared an all-out war.

The initial days were a total washout for the Tigrayans. The province was overrun fast, and reports of serious war crimes came out. Eritrea, which is to the North of Tigray, and had long-standing discontent with them (given the war that was fought with them by Ethiopia under Tigrayan leadership) also attacked the province, and with no accountability, widespread genocides were committed.

It looked to all that this was Abiy’s final solution to any credible solution to his rule. Though there were significant numbers of local resistance to the Addis Ababa rule, the only credible opposition was Tigray. Many speculated that Abiy only encouraged Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, one of the worst despots in the world, to push into Tigray.

As we know, dictators like dictators and fish in troubled waters. In neighboring Somalia, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo is hanging on illegally, and in Sudan, the military led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has overthrown the transition government led by Abdalla Hamdok weeks before the formal handover.

It was all by script, but people forgot three things. That Tigrayans are a veteran fighting force, that lots of officers of the Ethiopian army are from the tribe, and when pushed to the wall, even a small minority can turn lethal.

So in the last few weeks, the war has decisively turned. First Mekele was freed and captured Ethiopian army men were paraded. But the state and its social media amplifiers denied it. And then more of such news starts coming in.

The success of the Tigrayan forces also encouraged the other dissenting elements to up their ante, like the Oromo Liberation Front, which has now joined forces. And now it seems the war is almost at the door of Addis Ababa.

Things have turned so bad that Abiy Ahmed has declared a state of emergency and asked all abled-bodied Ethiopians to enlist to defend the capital. There are campaigns to identify the so-called enemies (read Tigrayans) living among others, and arbitrary arrests and internment have started.

But looks like this is a force that can’t be controlled. The officers have broken away on tribal lines, the Tigrayans are using guerrilla tactics (which they are good at) vis a vis the heavy mechanized ENDF. And it is a group fighting for life vis a vis a group fighting for a job.

What can the world learn from all of these? I list the following:
1. When pushed to the wall, even a small minority can be lethal.

2. A big army is good at the border but may not always be the same inside the country where local know-how is very important. So relative power may well be measured with all that in context.

3. Propaganda does not win wars, rather makes the fall faster when reality catches up.

4. The social media army, especially ones outside the country, is a liability with no skin in the game. And most will not show up when the calling comes.

5. Neighbours will only exploit the situation, but not help. This will be much worse when the neighbors are inimical.

6. A multi-ethnic country can well do with a conciliatory rather than confrontationist attitude. A federal structure will be better than a centralized one.

7. When chips are down, even one’s friends may turn into enemies. Like the rebels of Oromo, which is Abiy’s tribe.

8. The world cares a rat shit when you are of no value to them — either from resources or geopolitical point of view. There will only be polemics.

9. Things take time, especially in countries with rich heritage and significant diversity. Action based on popular emotion may be counterproductive, especially when the issue is long-drawn giving deep historical fissures to reappear.

10. Be careful in making Gods. Aung Sung Kuu Kyi, and now Abiy Ahmed. The Nobel Committee is squirming.

I think India too can learn a lot.

An update:

After two years, the Tigray war reached a ceasefire towards the end of 2022. With a total of 200,000 deaths only. And now a new conflict has started with the Amhara people — the second largest ethnic group who are up against the Oromos, the largest ethnicity of all.

Conflicts are contagious, it never stops on its own. It needs astute leadership and an appreciation of its futility to bring them under control.