Agnipath and Agniveer — A Topical Issue Which Needs Revisit and Correction if Necessary

Agnipath and Agniveer were on the nation’s consciousness some time back, surely it has lost its topical value. We have all seen and heard discussions about the pros and cons of the initiative and sure formed our views. But it will be good to look at the fundamentals which have driven the decision.

A periodic revisit of a topic like this is important. Defense forces are one of the most important institutions of any country, and any changes that we make to its structure or strategy or both should always be an open book — to be revisited from time to time, and make corrections if necessary.

All over the world, the armies are moving towards the next generation of warfare. In summary, this is more focused on technology and less on foot on the ground.

While we have instances in the past where even technologically inferior armies were able to overpower an opponent using sheer numbers (China in the Korean War of Russia at Stalingrad/ Leningrad), the importance of the numbers of soldiers had been on a steady decline. First, it was artillery, coupled with air power, and increasingly with the integration of the technologies.

If we look at the Ukraine war, we find smaller groups of resistance fighters armed with hand-propelled guns, and backed by unmanned drones can stall, or times eliminate, the huge columns of the Russian army. Or if we step back, we will see how Azerbaijan defeated Armenia almost entirely using Turkish drones.

Paring the military is an increasing trend. For the first time in many decades, US armed forces are below a million. And using conscripts who serve for a finite time, to keep both average ages and costs low is picking up pace — like in China.

So the fundamentals of reducing people and using the budgets to get non-people enablers of war are well established. But why the hurry in India? Well, some factors make India’s situation urgent:

1. China joined Pakistan as an active adversary and lit up both borders.

2. Despite many overt and covert attempts by India, China remains belligerent. The causes are always going to be speculated, but it appears primarily to generate jingoism at home and make an example out of India (and course Australia — the other major power in the Indo-Pacific) for the many countries with whom China is engaged in territorial disputes. Add to this the fact that QUAD is not warming up as expected, and India needs an agile battle-ready force.

3. With 61% of the defence budget spent on Salaries and Pensions and another 6% on defence stores, the Indian army has a limited budget for equipment and investments in new technologies. The plans of the Navy and Air Force getting delayed are well known, and we regularly hear about the lack of adequate ammunition stock for even a short, intense conflict. Add to that the Atmanirbhar and Made in India focus, and the massive R&D outlay is a no-brainer. But where is the money?

4. The average age of the Indian army is 32. While it may not look from a civilian perspective, when we look through the lens of strength and endurance an army needs, every year matters. So, a reduction of the average and the right balance of senior with junior forces is a need.

So Agnipath and Agniveer — reduced the manpower (or better still — personpower) budget and reduced the average age.

And the need to be urgent, and present. This needs to be done.

Whether the Change Management could have been better can be a separate discussion. However, one very important issue is what happens to these military-trained young people after they come back to civilian life after four years (the 75% who will not cut).

These are different from the short service commission, as they are much younger but had been exposed to a life where reasonable money came with significant power. And if we lack a plan to absorb them back gainfully, there can be trouble.

Apart from all the fear of them becoming potential recruits for gangs, we also need to be wary of the burgeoning mercenary and private security business globally.

A large part of the world lacks the rule of the law, and young people for hire are in demand. We have seen such a situation in Haiti recently, and jobless well-trained youth can well fall for such traps.

This is a national concern, and there should be enough checks and balances for their easy absorption with gainful livelihoods.